KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Anne Carson (99%)
Resolved: Oct 8, 2026, 3:13 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 8, 2026, 2:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Anne Carson12%
Can Xue48%
Haruki Murakami1%
Gerald Murnane1%
César Aira4%
Thomas Pynchon5%
Alexis Wright15%
Margaret Atwood5%
Mircea Cărtărescu8%
Amitav Ghosh9%
Cristina Rivera Garza14%
Anne CarsonWon
Can XueLost
Thomas PynchonLost
Haruki MurakamiLost
Gerald MurnaneLost
César AiraLost
Alexis WrightLost
Salman RushdieLost
Margaret AtwoodLost
Mircea CărtărescuLost
Amitav GhoshLost
Cristina Rivera GarzaLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the named outcome has won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Nobel Foundation
