Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Not by 2030 60.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
Not by 2030 60.6%Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 36 minutes ago
Jan 5, 25, 8:35 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Wins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030
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Manifold MarketsNational Book Award for Translated Literature
KalshiNational Book Award for Young People's Literature
KalshiRules
Mircea Cărtărescu is a renowned Romanian novelist, poet, and essayist who has been consistently mentioned as a top contender for the Nobel Prize in Literature.
- He was among the favorites for the 2024 prize and continues to be considered a strong candidate for future awards.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to the year in which Mircea Cărtărescu wins the Nobel Prize in Literature.
- If he wins the prize in any year from 2025 through 2030, the corresponding year option will resolve as YES, with all other options resolving as NO.
- If he does not win the prize by the end of 2030, "the named outcome" will resolve as YES, with all other options resolving as NO.
