Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleOct 8, 24, 10:13 PM UTCOct 16, 70, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Mircea Cărtărescu win a Nobel Prize in Literature (2025-2030)?
Manifold MarketsWins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?
Manifold MarketsOscar Winner: Best Picture
Kalshi#1 on the Billboard 200 chart for the Week of Nov 7, 2026?
KalshiRules
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Moore
- Writer of Watchmen, V for Vendetta, Marvelman, Top Ten Swamp Thing, Batman: The Killing Joke, and From Hell.
- He writes novels too, which have been well received.
