KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 2:16 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Richard Blundell9%
Susan Athey14%
Ariel Pakes23%
Andreu Mas-Colell2%
Sendhil Mullainathan1%
Susan AtheyLost
Ariel PakesLost
Andreu Mas-ColellLost
Thomas PikettyLost
Robert BarroLost
Partha DasguptaLost
Matthew RabinLost
Emmanuel SaezLost
Sendhil MullainathanLost
Richard BlundellLost
Ernst FehrLost
Luigi ZingalesLost
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Robinhood (Rothera)Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the named outcome has won the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Nobel Foundation