Given the Republican candidate wins the 2024 presidency, will the real median household income be more than $74,580?
EconomyOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 85.7%
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9
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 11 hours ago
StaleDec 20, 23, 11:20 PM UTCJan 2, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Resolves N/A if the Republican doesn't win.
- Real median household income is $74,580 as of 2022.
- Resolves based on census.gov.
- This question is basically asking for the probability of stagnation or recession for the median American given the Republican wins.
- See also this question for if the Democrat wins.
- https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html#:~:text=Real%20median%20household%20income%20was,and%20Table%20A%2D1).
