Given the Republican candidate wins the 2024 presidency, will the real median household income be more than $74,580?
EconomyOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 85.7%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 20, 23, 11:20 PM UTCJan 2, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Given the Democratic candidate wins the 2024 presidency, will the real median household income be more than $74,580?
Manifold MarketsWill US median household income equal at least half of average home values by 2035?
Manifold MarketsDid Real Median Income Decrease During the Biden Administration?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a non-Republican candidate next win the presidency of the US?
Manifold MarketsGovernment shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
KalshiUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRules
Resolves N/A if the Republican doesn't win.
- Real median household income is $74,580 as of 2022.
- Resolves based on census.gov.
- This question is basically asking for the probability of stagnation or recession for the median American given the Republican wins.
- See also this question for if the Democrat wins.
- https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html#:~:text=Real%20median%20household%20income%20was,and%20Table%20A%2D1).
