Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 57.3%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleApr 17, 26, 11:37 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Given the Republican candidate wins the 2024 presidency, will the real median household income be more than $74,580?
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KalshiRules
Resolves according to the Real Median Household Adjusted Income After Taxes and Transfers Section of the Distribution of Household Income in 2024 report by The Congressional Budget Office.
- Here's the 2022 report.
- See the supplemental data excel sheet for the statistic.
- It fell 7.2% during the first 2 years according to the CBO, but rose during the last 2 years according to the sources I'm aware of that have published for those years.
- Our World in Data found it decreased 2.8% during the Biden administration, but that's a small enough decrease that differences in methodology could outweigh it.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Did Real Median Income Decrease During the Biden Administration??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Did Real Median Income Decrease During the Biden Administration? resolve?
- Did Real Median Income Decrease During the Biden Administration? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Did Real Median Income Decrease During the Biden Administration? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves according to the Real Median Household Adjusted Income After Taxes and Transfers Section of the Distribution of Household Income in 2024 report by The Congressional Budget Office.