Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 57.3%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 17, 26, 11:37 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolves according to the Real Median Household Adjusted Income After Taxes and Transfers Section of the Distribution of Household Income in 2024 report by The Congressional Budget Office.
- Here's the 2022 report.
- See the supplemental data excel sheet for the statistic.
- It fell 7.2% during the first 2 years according to the CBO, but rose during the last 2 years according to the sources I'm aware of that have published for those years.
- Our World in Data found it decreased 2.8% during the Biden administration, but that's a small enough decrease that differences in methodology could outweigh it.