Will real median income for family households in the US be higher in 2028 than in 2024?
InflationOne-OffMacro & Economy2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 64.6%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleNov 14, 24, 2:58 AM UTCSep 21, 29, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
The US Census Bureau publishes a yearly report about income levels in the United States (in recent years titled "Income in the United States", see https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/income.html), usually published in mid-September of the following year.
- This market will resolve "Yes" if the value for real median income for family households during 2028 is higher than the value for 2024 and "No" if the value is lower or equal.
- This market will be resolved when the report for 2028 is published, probably between 9/10/2029 and 9/13/2029.
- If the data for 2024 have been revised since their initial release, this market will resolve based on the most recent data available at the time of resolution.
- If the name of the report changes, as long as it's clear which report measures this figure, this market will resolve in the obvious way.
- If report frequency changes, as long as a report is published about income in 2028, this market will resolve based on the most recent report about 2028 published as of 9/20/2029, or based on the first report about income in 2024 thereafter if the relevant report is published later (that is, if reports start to encompass 6-month periods instead of 1-year periods, and a report on the last 6 months of 2028 is available, this market will resolve based on that report.
