Will China have an economic recession induced by overcapacity before EOY 2030?
EconomyOne-OffHealth & MedicineChessGeopoliticsChinaSports4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 73.3%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleAug 17, 26, 6:01 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before the end of December 31, 2030, China enters an economic recession that is widely attributed to industrial overcapacity.
- For the purposes of this market, an economic recession in China is defined by meeting at least one of the following conditions:
- Negative GDP Growth: China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports negative real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth (either quarter-on-quarter or year-on-year) for at least two consecutive quarters.
- Institutional/Multilateral Declaration: The International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, or a consensus of leading financial news outlets (specifically Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Financial Times) explicitly declares that China has entered a "recession" (including a "balance sheet recession" or "structural recession").
- To satisfy the condition "induced by overcapacity":
