Current community forecast
Yes 66%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleAug 28, 23, 8:59 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
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Manifold MarketsUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a Trump economic boom?
KalshiUS economic recession in 2026?
FutuurRules
This will be resolved based on the percentage difference in GDP per person in US dollars at purchase power parity (PPP).
- [image]I define Western Europe as something like the EU prior to the admission of Poland (minus Greece, plus Switzerland, Norway), but I don't expect to litigate the concept; the economies are highly correlated and the big countries will drive the result.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030? resolve?
- Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This will be resolved based on the percentage difference in GDP per person in US dollars at purchase power parity (PPP).