Will Mexico go through two or more years of negative economic growth by EOY 2030?
InflationOne-OffEconomyLatin America4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.2%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMay 27, 25, 11:10 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mexico experiences two or more calendar years of negative real GDP growth (i.e., a contraction in GDP) between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2030.
- The determination will be based on official annual GDP growth data published by Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) or other reputable sources such as the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
- If two or more years within this period show a negative percentage change in real GDP compared to the previous year, the market resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves to "No".
