KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Above 0.4% (71%)
Resolved: Jun 10, 2026, 1:35 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Above 0.4%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
79%
ConsensusCurrent implied probability
Above 0.1% 99%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$59.6K
Liquidity
$2.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 83 days ago
StaleMar 18, 26, 5:00 PMJun 10, 26, 12:25 PM
Probability Timeline
Above 0.4%71%
Above 0.1%99%
Above 0.6%7%
Above 0.5%20%
Above 0.7%3%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
97%
95%
71%
20%
7%
2%
2%
1%
1%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.3% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (June 10, 2026).
- Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency.
- In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.2% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt57.8%
- No change-1.0pt40.2%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $76.8M
- 24h Vol
- $4.2M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+1.0pt72%
- No-1.0pt28%
- Total Vol
- $8.4M
- 24h Vol
- $107K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting53.2%
- September Meeting+0.5pt46.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $358.9K
- 24h Vol
- $20.7K
KALSHIWhat will Fed Gov Waller say during his Economic Outlook?
- Inflation+9.0pt99%
- Labor / Job+2.0pt92%
- Tariff+9.0pt89%
+15 more outcomes
KALSHICPI-U index in August
- Above 334.300-1.0pt98%
- Above 334.450+4.0pt98%
- Above 334.35097%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $86.5K
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Brazil inflation rate in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- China Annual Inflation 2026
- August Inflation US - Annual
- US gasoline CPI for August
- Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
- Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026
- CPI in August
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- US shelter CPI in August
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for CPI in May?
- Kalshi prices Above 0.1% at 99% as of June 10, 2026.
- When does CPI in May resolve?
- CPI in May is scheduled to resolve on June 10, 2026.
- How is CPI in May settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.3% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.