KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2% 18%Leader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$33.5K
Liquidity
$28.4K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Sep 13, 26, 10:00 PM UTCOct 14, 26, 12:25 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiWill September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsHeadline PCE inflation in Aug 2026
KalshiWill core CPI be above headline CPI in September?
KalshiIn What Year will the Costco Hotdog Combo cost more than $1.50?
Manifold MarketsRules
If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- For all outcomes in this market, Headline refers to the single-decimal month-over-month percent change in CPI-U: All Items, and Core refers to the single-decimal month-over-month percent change in CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy.
- This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
- If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Headline CPI MoM and Core CPI MoM each use ECONSTAT.
- For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).
- All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase78.4%
- No change20.6%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $148.5M
- 24h Vol
- $7.6M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+1.0pt89%
- No-1.0pt11%
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- 24h Vol
- $74.5K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt84%
- September Meeting+1.0pt80%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
- >5.0%+10.3pt28.9%
- 4.7-5.0%+11.8pt25%
- 4.4-4.7%+2.8pt23.1%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+11.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%97%
- Above 3.3%96%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.6K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
POLYMARKETFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Pause–Pause–Pause+1.0pt20.8%
- Cut–Pause–Pause-0.8pt0%
- Cut–Pause–Cut-0.4pt0%
+6 more outcomes
- CPI in September
- September Inflation US - Annual
- PPI YoY - September 2026
- Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- September Inflation China - Annual
- How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?
- What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Olathe?
- Price of Dozen Eggs in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core?
- Kalshi prices Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2% at 18% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core resolve?
- September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core is scheduled to resolve on October 14, 2026.
- How is September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Kalshi.