KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above (35%)
Resolved: Oct 14, 2026, 1:14 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 14, 2026, 12:12 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.1% or below11%
Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%68%
Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above35%
Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%Lost
Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or aboveWon
Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.1% or belowLost
Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: Exactly 0.2%Lost
Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or aboveLost
Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or belowLost
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.1% or belowLost
Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.1% or belowLost
Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%Lost
Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.3% or aboveLost
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%Lost
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.3% or aboveLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill December 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill October 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
PolymarketUS gas prices this week
KalshiMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- For all outcomes in this market, Headline refers to the single-decimal month-over-month percent change in CPI-U: All Items, and Core refers to the single-decimal month-over-month percent change in CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Headline CPI MoM and Core CPI MoM each use ECONSTAT. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
Rules for each outcome
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%
- If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above
- If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.1% or below
- If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.1% or below, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
- If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: Exactly 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or above
- If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or above, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or below
- If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or below, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.1% or below
- If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.1% or below, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.1% or below
- If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.1% or below, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%
- If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.3% or above
- If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.3% or above, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
- If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.3% or above
- If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.3% or above, then the market resolves to Yes.