Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 74.6%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 22, 26, 12:04 AM UTCOct 14, 26, 12:29 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for September 2026 reports that the all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), seasonally adjusted, rose at least 0.3% from August 2026 to September 2026.
- Resolve NO if the initial BLS release reports a seasonally adjusted all-items CPI-U month-over-month change of 0.2% or lower, including 0.0% or a decline.
- Use the official BLS CPI news release or its tables for September 2026 as the primary source.
- Do not use core CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE, PPI, non-seasonally-adjusted monthly change, real earnings, or later annual revisions.
- If BLS corrects the initial September 2026 CPI release before this market is resolved, use the corrected BLS release.
- Scheduled source context: BLS calendar lists Consumer Price Index, September 2026, at 08:30 AM Eastern on October 14, 2026.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629K
- 24h Vol
- $35.7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,000-1.0pt44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $90.3K
- 24h Vol
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? resolve?
- Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? is scheduled to resolve on October 14, 2026.
- How is Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for September 2026 reports that the all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), seasonally adjusted, rose at least 0.3% from August 2026 to September 2026.