KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Exactly 3.3% 23%Leader of 16 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$250
Liquidity
$2.2K
Low liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Dec 15, 25, 3:00 PM UTCOct 14, 26, 12:29 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.0% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index
- If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.1% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.2% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.3% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.4% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.5% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+13.0pt65.7%
- No change-13.0pt33.3%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $113.7M
- 24h Vol
- $5.3M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $817.3K
- 24h Vol
- $96.1K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+7.0pt73%
- September Meeting+11.0pt65%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+1.5pt76%
- No-1.5pt24%
- Total Vol
- $8.8M
- 24h Vol
- $60.9K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $465.7K
- 24h Vol
- $40.4K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 1 (25 bps)-5.0pt44.8%
- 2 (50 bps)+3.5pt25.7%
- 0 (0 bps)22.9%
+3 more outcomes
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI core in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
- CPI core month-over-month in Aug 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- How high will inflation get this year?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
- CPI-U index in August
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026??
- Kalshi prices Exactly 3.3% at 23% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026? resolve?
- CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 14, 2026.
- How is CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.0% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.