KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 7.0% (99%)
Resolved: Sep 28, 2026, 3:49 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 14, 2026, 6:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Above 7.0%99%
Above 7.3%99%
Above 7.5%65%
Above 6.8%99%
Above 7.2%99%
Above 6.7%99%
Above 7.4%88%
Above 7.6%53%
Above 7.7%34%
Above 7.1%99%
Above 7.8%11%
Above 7.9%11%
Above 8.0%12%
Above 7.3%Lost
Above 6.7%Lost
Above 6.8%Lost
Above 7.0%Won
Above 7.1%Lost
Above 7.2%Lost
Above 6.9%Lost
Above 7.4%Lost
Above 7.5%Lost
Above 7.6%Lost
Above 7.7%Lost
Above 7.8%Lost
Above 7.9%Lost
Above 8.0%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
PolymarketFreddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?
KalshiWhen will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States)
Manifold MarketsMortgage rates higher in 5 years?
Manifold MarketsFed decision in January
Manifold MarketsFed decision in October?
Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.7% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Freddie Mac
- Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the source agency.
- If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.8% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.9% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 30-Yr FRM is above 7.0% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 30-Yr FRM is above 7.1% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.