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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Macro & Economy
  3. How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

5.0% (24h)One-OffMacro & EconomyFedInflation6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Above 6.7%
Above 6.7% 55%-5.0%
Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0.2

Liquidity

$279.2

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

55.0% / 58.0%

Spread

5.5%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Apr 2, 26, 1:00 AMJan 1, 27, 1:29 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Above 6.5%
Above 6.5%
100%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Above 6.7%55%

Rules

If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.5% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the source agency.
  • If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.6% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.7% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.8% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.9% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$50
0 (0 bps): 82.3%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
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How many net Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$141.1
0 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75): 37.9%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

$100
Yes: 15.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Jobs numbers in Jul 2026?

Jobs numbers in Jul 2026?

$5.1
Above 100,000: 50%KalshiKALSHI
Lisa Cook departure announced?

Lisa Cook departure announced?

$0
Before Sep 1, 2026: 8%KalshiKALSHI
Jobs numbers in Nov 2026?

Jobs numbers in Nov 2026?

$0
Above -25,000: 78%KalshiKALSHI

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$59,898.55-1.65%EthereumETH$1,550.80-4.31%SolanaSOL$68.00+0.48%DogecoinDOGE$0.0742-2.21%XRPXRP$1.03-3.85%BNBBNB$560.54-0.76%

Related News

Inflation gauge hits 3-year high as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 77.5%Blockchain.NewsHot PCE inflation fuels rate-hike talk as Polymarket puts Starmer exit at 89.5%Blockchain.NewsInflation warning revives hike talk as Polymarket keeps 2026 at 82% zero cutsBlockchain.NewsBofA flags 2026 hikes; Polymarket puts July Fed hold at 73.5%Blockchain.NewsWarsh flags easy financing as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold odds to 78.5%Blockchain.NewsWarsh drops forward guidance as Polymarket pegs 2026 zero cuts at 79.85%Blockchain.News

Rules

If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.5% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the source agency.
  • If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.6% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.7% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.8% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.9% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.