KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Sep 14, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
1.0% / 2.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 11:30 PM UTCOct 14, 26, 12:25 PM UTC
Trends
100%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsCPI in September
KalshiUS shelter CPI in September
KalshiUS gasoline CPI for September
KalshiWill September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsCore CPI MoM - September 2026
PolymarketRules
If core CPI inflation is above headline CPI inflation for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Only the first non-preliminary release of each value will be used.
- Revisions published after the first non-preliminary release will not affect resolution.
- For purposes of this market, “U.S. CPI all items less food and energy year-over-year inflation” means the 12-month percent change for “All items less food and energy” in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, as reported by BLS. “U.S. CPI all items year-over-year inflation” means the 12-month percent change for “All items” in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, as reported by BLS.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase78.4%
- No change20.6%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $148.5M
- 24h Vol
- $7.6M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+1.0pt89%
- No-1.0pt11%
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- 24h Vol
- $74.5K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt84%
- September Meeting+1.0pt80%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHISeptember 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%18%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or above6%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or below5%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.5K
POLYMARKETSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
- >5.0%+10.3pt28.9%
- 4.7-5.0%+11.8pt25%
- 4.4-4.7%+2.8pt23.1%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+11.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%97%
- Above 3.3%96%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.6K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI in September
- September Inflation US - Annual
- PPI YoY - September 2026
- Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- September Inflation China - Annual
- How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?
- What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Olathe?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will core CPI be above headline CPI in September??
- Kalshi prices No at 100% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does Will core CPI be above headline CPI in September? resolve?
- Will core CPI be above headline CPI in September? is scheduled to resolve on October 14, 2026.
- How is Will core CPI be above headline CPI in September? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If core CPI inflation is above headline CPI inflation for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.