PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
2.4% 34.7%+2.5ptLeader of 10 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
54 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$345.7
Liquidity
$8.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 3:30 PM UTCOct 15, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
- The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
- Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase78.4%
- No change20.6%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $148.5M
- 24h Vol
- $7.6M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+1.0pt89%
- No-1.0pt11%
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- 24h Vol
- $74.5K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt84%
- September Meeting+1.0pt80%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHISeptember 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%18%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or above6%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or below5%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.5K
POLYMARKETSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
- >5.0%+10.3pt28.9%
- 4.7-5.0%+11.8pt25%
- 4.4-4.7%+2.8pt23.1%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+11.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%97%
- Above 3.3%96%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.6K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI in September
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- PPI YoY - September 2026
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- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
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- How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Core CPI YoY - September 2026?
- Polymarket prices 2.4% at 35% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does Core CPI YoY - September 2026 resolve?
- Core CPI YoY - September 2026 is scheduled to resolve on October 15, 2026.
- How is Core CPI YoY - September 2026 settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Where else is Core CPI YoY - September 2026 listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.