KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 4.7% 90%Leader of 16 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.6K
Liquidity
$1.6K
Low liquiditySpread
49.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Sep 10, 26, 4:15 PM UTCOct 15, 26, 12:29 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
South Korea exports YoY for September
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LimitlessHow high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
KalshiWill the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for September 2026 is above 4.7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- If the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for September 2026 is above 4.8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for September 2026 is above 4.9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for September 2026 is above 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for September 2026 is above 5.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for September 2026 is above 5.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+17.0pt80.2%
- No change-18.0pt18.8%
- 50+ bps increase-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $123M
- 24h Vol
- $10.8M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+14.5pt85%
- September Meeting+17.0pt80%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+8.0pt87.1%
- No-8.0pt12.9%
- Total Vol
- $9M
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 1 (25 bps)-4.5pt46.4%
- 2 (50 bps)-1.5pt32%
- 3 (75 bps)+5.9pt11.3%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Pause–Pause–Pause-17.0pt18.8%
- Pause–Pause–Cut+0.1pt1%
- Cut–Pause–Pause-0.8pt0%
+6 more outcomes
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- How high will CPI get this year?
- Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
- How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
- Core PCE MoM - August 2026
- How high will inflation get this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for PPI YoY in September?
- Kalshi prices Above 4.7% at 90% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does PPI YoY in September resolve?
- PPI YoY in September is scheduled to resolve on October 15, 2026.
- How is PPI YoY in September settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for September 2026 is above 4.7%, then the market resolves to Yes.