US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? [Polymarket]
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle East2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOctober 31 9%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleSep 9, 26, 12:42 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve identically to this one, on Polymarket: US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
- Polymarket rules: On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees).
- An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
