PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Paxton 0-3% 21.8%Leader of 10 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$56
Liquidity
$71.4K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+8.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Aug 4, 26, 6:43 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Texas Senate Election Winner
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PolymarketIf this person wins the 2026 Texas Senate seat Democratic primary, will they become Senator?
Manifold MarketsRules
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
- The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively.
- Independent candidates will not represent options for either party.
Open markets
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- Marine Le Pen+0.2pt36.5%
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- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance+0.4pt51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt18%
- Tucker Carlson4%
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POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.8pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.4pt14%
+48 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14.6%
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- $215.7M
- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson-8.0pt71.6%
- Ulf Kristersson+9.0pt27.4%
- Ebba Busch+0.3pt1%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory?
- Polymarket prices Paxton 0-3% at 22% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory resolve?
- Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.