Who will be the 2026 Republican nominee for Governor of Florida?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection5dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastByron Donalds 94.2%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Dec 4, 25, 6:43 PMAug 1, 26, 12:59 AM
Trends
0.2%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Byron Donalds94%
Compare venues· Byron Donalds
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall88% match · verified | High | 97% | — | $163.8K | $6.6M | 25 minutes ago | Open → |
 Polymarket85% match · linked | Medium | 97% | — | $58.7 | $273.6K | 5 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 94% | — | — | — | 25 minutes ago | |
 PredictIt88% match · linked | — | 94% | — | — | — | 25 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Florida Republican Governor nominee?
0.1%3mo
97%
+0.1%3%
+0.4%1%
+6 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$11.1M
24h Vol$163.8K
KALSHIAlso available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2026 Florida Republican nomination for governor?
1y
94%
-2.0%4%
1%
+2 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Polymarket
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner
0.1%22d
97%
+0.1%3%
-0.1%1%
+20 more outcomes
72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.1M
24h Vol$58.7
POLYMARKETRules
Resolves yes to the winner of the 2026 Republican primary, according to major news outlets and election results.
- Ron Desantis is term limited and can’t seek reelection.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.4k97.5%KALSHIByron Donalds — Yes7h ago
KALSHIByron Donalds — Yes7h ago$4.4k97.7%KALSHIJames Fishback — No2d ago
KALSHIJames Fishback — No2d ago$2.8k97.7%KALSHIJames Fishback — No2d ago
KALSHIJames Fishback — No2d ago$1.1k97.7%KALSHIJames Fishback — No2d ago
KALSHIJames Fishback — No2d ago$5.8k97.6%KALSHIJames Fishback — No2d ago
KALSHIJames Fishback — No2d ago$1.8k97.2%POLYMARKETWill James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — NoInsiderrrZ5d ago
POLYMARKETWill James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — NoInsiderrrZ5d ago$4.8k97.1%KALSHIJames Fishback — No11d ago
KALSHIJames Fishback — No11d ago$2.4k96.4%KALSHIJames Fishback — No14d ago
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Resolves yes to the winner of the 2026 Republican primary, according to major news outlets and election results.
- Ron Desantis is term limited and can’t seek reelection.