Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
25.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS Politics5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 54%-0.3%
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$49.1K
Liquidity
$48.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
53.0% / 55.0%
Spread
3.8%
Moderate spread7d Change
-14.0%
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Oct 17, 25, 9:26 PMJan 3, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes54%
CoinRithm reference33%· 2 venues· ±21 pts
YesNoMANIFOLD MARKETS
YesNo
KALSHI
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will Mitch McConnell complete his current term as Senator from Kentucky?
6mo
70%
30%
Community forecast118 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$11.1K
24h Vol$178
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Kalshi
Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?
7.0%3mo
-7.0%33%
67%
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$432.6K
24h Vol$74.9K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S.
- Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term.
- Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.
- The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$49.1kJul 27d of dataJul 8
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S.
- Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term.
- Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.
- The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S.