If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat?
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsElection2026 US Midterms1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57.9%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Aug 12, 26, 4:29 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the following conditions:
- YES: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027, AND Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear officially appoints a registered Democrat to fill the vacancy.
- An official appointment is defined as Governor Beshear signing an executive order or certificate of appointment naming a registered Democrat, regardless of whether that appointment is subsequently challenged, blocked by courts, or if the individual is successfully seated in the U.S. Senate.
- NO: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before January 3, 2027, but Governor Beshear does not officially appoint a registered Democrat (e.g., if he appoints a Republican, an Independent, or makes no interim appointment at all, allowing the vacancy to proceed directly to an election).
- N/A: If Mitch McConnell does not vacate his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027.
