If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 58%
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binary
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Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJul 3, 26, 8:28 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the following conditions:
- YES: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027, AND Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear officially appoints a registered Democrat to fill the vacancy.
- An official appointment is defined as Governor Beshear signing an executive order or certificate of appointment naming a registered Democrat, regardless of whether that appointment is subsequently challenged, blocked by courts, or if the individual is successfully seated in the U.S. Senate.
- NO: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before January 3, 2027, but Governor Beshear does not officially appoint a registered Democrat (e.g., if he appoints a Republican, an Independent, or makes no interim appointment at all, allowing the vacancy to proceed directly to an election).
- N/A: If Mitch McConnell does not vacate his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027.