KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 35%-4.0%
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$82.9K
Liquidity
$169.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
34.0% / 35.0%
Spread
2.9%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Dec 21, 24, 3:00 PMNov 3, 26, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes35%
CoinRithm reference35%· 2 venues· ±21 pts
YesNo
POLYMARKET
YesNoMANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Polymarket
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
25.0%5mo
-0.3%53%
+0.3%47%
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$183.8K
24h Vol$50.1K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will Mitch McConnell complete his current term as Senator from Kentucky?
6mo
70%
30%
Community forecast118 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$11.1K
24h Vol$178
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If Mitch McConnell resigns their office, or announces they will resign their office, before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Leaving office due to death will not resolve the market to Yes, and the market will remain open.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$82.9kJul 26d of dataJul 7
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If Mitch McConnell resigns their office, or announces they will resign their office, before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Leaving office due to death will not resolve the market to Yes, and the market will remain open.