Will Mitch McConnell's Senate seat be vacant Christmas Eve 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.3%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJul 3, 26, 7:16 PM UTCDec 24, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves based on
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on December 24, 2026 (Christmas Eve), Mitch McConnell's Class II U.S. Senate seat representing Kentucky is officially vacant.
- It will resolve to NO if the seat is occupied by Mitch McConnell or any successor who has been officially sworn in to fill the seat by that date.
- A vacancy exists if Mitch McConnell has died, resigned, been expelled, or otherwise officially vacated his office before December 24, 2026, and no successor has been officially sworn in and seated in the U.S. Senate to replace him by 11:59 PM EST on December 24, 2026.
- If Mitch McConnell remains the sitting Senator for Kentucky as of December 24, 2026, this market will resolve to NO.