Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 1, 2026, 1:13 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastDemocrats 42%
Forecasters
22
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 25 days ago
StaleNov 19, 25, 10:16 PMNov 4, 26, 5:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Democrats42%
Compare venues· Republicans
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall82% match · verified | High | 57% | — | $27.4K | $4.2M | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 58% | — | — | — | 25 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Texas Senate winner?
1.0%1y
-1.0%57%
43%
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$6.2M
24h Vol$27.4K
KALSHIRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$6.8k57.0%KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes7d ago
KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes7d ago$1.4k56.0%KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes7d ago
KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes7d ago$1.1k58.0%KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes10d ago
KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes10d ago$1.2k43.0%KALSHIJames Talarico — Yes11d ago
KALSHIJames Talarico — Yes11d ago$1.9k59.0%KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes19d ago
KALSHIKen Paxton — Yes19d ago$1.1k42.0%KALSHIKen Paxton — No19d ago
KALSHIKen Paxton — No19d ago$1.2k41.0%KALSHIJames Talarico — Yes19d ago
KALSHIJames Talarico — Yes19d ago$1.0k41.0%KALSHIJames Talarico — Yes19d ago
KALSHIJames Talarico — Yes19d agoRelated Markets
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KALSHIActive in these topics
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.