LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
James Talarico (D) 71.5%
James Talarico (D) 71.5%Market quality
27 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$279.6
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 14, 26, 12:33 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
James Talarico (D) · Ken Paxton (R).
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question.
- Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders.
- In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
- This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
- If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's cross-venue reference probability for James Talarico (D) is 71%. The venue spread is about 1 percentage point. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference James Talarico (D) 71% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on Polymarket — Texas Senate Election Winner · James Talarico (D) 72%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2026 Texas Senate Race · Democrat 72%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Who will win the 2026 Senate Election in Texas? · James Talarico 72%
- Also available on Kalshi — Texas Senate winner? · James Talarico 70%
- Also available on Futuur — Texas's Senate election winner · Democratic Party 66%
