Who will win the 2026 Senate Election in Texas?
0.9 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJames Talarico 66%+0.9ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
184
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleNov 17, 25, 9:00 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Kalshi)
Manifold MarketsWill the Libertarian candidate in the 2026 US Senate Election in Texas get 2% or more of the vote?
Manifold MarketsWill Talarico outperform Beto O'Rourke in the 2026 US Senate Election in Texas?
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Kalshi)
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Texas?
PredictItWill Democrats win any statewide election in Texas in 2026? (Blexas)
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026.
- The winner will be determined by the candidate who receives the most votes in the general election.
- Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026.
- The market resolves to whichever candidate wins the general election.
- Results can be verified at Texas Secretary of State Elections Division or major news outlets covering the election results.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Texas Senate Election Winner · James Talarico (D) 69%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2026 Texas Senate Race · Democrat 68%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election? · Yes 69%
- Also available on Limitless — Texas Senate Election Winner · James Talarico (D) 70%
- Also available on Kalshi — Texas Senate winner? · James Talarico 68%
