Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastKen Paxton 57.8%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
157
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Nov 17, 25, 9:00 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0.2%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Ken Paxton58%
Compare venues· Ken Paxton
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall85% match · verified | High | 56% | — | $2.3K | $97.9K | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 58% | — | — | — | 14 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Texas Senate Election Winner
1.0 pts3mo
-1.0pt56%
44%
0%
+10 more outcomes
79 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$619.2K
24h Vol$2.3K
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria
- The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026.
- The winner will be determined by the candidate who receives the most votes in the general election.
- Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026.
- The market resolves to whichever candidate wins the general election.
- Results can be verified at Texas Secretary of State Elections Division or major news outlets covering the election results.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$69Jul 820d of dataJul 27
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Resolution criteria
- The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026.
- The winner will be determined by the candidate who receives the most votes in the general election.
- Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026.
- The market resolves to whichever candidate wins the general election.
- Results can be verified at Texas Secretary of State Elections Division or major news outlets covering the election results.