Who will win Texas’ U.S. Senate race in 2026? (Nov 3 general election)
One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJames Talarico 50.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
87
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 25, 26, 9:32 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which party will win the 2026 Texas Senate race?
Manifold MarketsIf James Talarico is the Democratic nominee, will he win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will win in the Texas Senate Race?
Manifold MarketsTexas Senate Election Winner
PolymarketTexas Senate Election Margin of Victory
PolymarketTexas Senate and Governor Combo
PolymarketRules
This market resolves to the candidate certified by the Texas Secretary of State as the winner of the November 3, 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election.
- If a recount, legal challenge, or delay occurs, resolution is based on the final certified result.
- Update 2026-02-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Primary election handling: Candidates who lose their primary will be resolved to No, since they cannot appear in the November 3 general election in Texas.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will win Texas’ U.S. Senate race in 2026? (Nov 3 general election)?
- Manifold Markets prices James Talarico at 51% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Who will win Texas’ U.S. Senate race in 2026? (Nov 3 general election) resolve?
- Who will win Texas’ U.S. Senate race in 2026? (Nov 3 general election) is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.
- How is Who will win Texas’ U.S. Senate race in 2026? (Nov 3 general election) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves to the candidate certified by the Texas Secretary of State as the winner of the November 3, 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election.