Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastFlavio Bolsonaro 89%+3.3ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
76
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+32.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Feb 23, 26, 2:52 AM UTCOct 25, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- If date changes, resolves based on next presidential election.
- This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
- This market includes any potential second round.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Brazil Presidential election winner? · Flávio Bolsonaro 86%
