Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastLula Da Silva 56.9%+1.7%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
26
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleFeb 23, 26, 2:52 AMOct 25, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Lula Da Silva57%
Also available on Kalshi
Brazil Presidential election winner?
4.0%1y
-4.0%61%
-0.3%9%
27%
+10 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2.3M
24h Vol$5.2K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Brazil Presidential Election Winner
3mo
58%
+0.1%25%
1%
+4 more outcomes
Community forecast18 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$14.6K
24h Vol$495.3
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election
3mo
61%
+0.1%22%
+0.1%10%
+29 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$110M
24h Vol$339.9K
POLYMARKETRules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- If date changes, resolves based on next presidential election.
- This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
- This market includes any potential second round.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- If date changes, resolves based on next presidential election.
- This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
- This market includes any potential second round.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).