KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democratic party 58.4%+1.0pt
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$73.8
Liquidity
$263.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
58.0% / 59.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Nov 6, 24, 3:00 PMNov 7, 29, 3:00 PM
Trends
Rules
If a representative of the the named outcome is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Office of the Presidency
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Democratic is 60%. Quotes span about 10 percentage points between the widest venues. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Democratic 60% · 3 venues · 10 pt venue spread
- Also available on ForecastEx — Will a Republican win the US Presidential Election in 2028? · No 56%
- Also available on Limitless — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? · Democratic 50%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winning Party · Democrat 58%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Which party will win the 2028 US Presidential election? · Democratic Party 63%
- Also available on Polymarket — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? · Democratic 59%
- Also available on PredictIt — Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? · Democratic 56%
Open markets
PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16%
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $209.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.3pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez11%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $697.1M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva56.6%
- Flávio Bolsonaro39.4%
- Renan Santos+0.3pt2%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIMassachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?
- Ed Markey+0.5pt99%
- Seth Moulton-0.9pt1%
- Ayanna Pressley0%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt33%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt27%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
- Flávio Bolsonaro-0.5pt86%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+0.9pt13%
- Augusto Cury-0.1pt1%
+15 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)?
- Kalshi prices Democratic party at 58% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) resolve?
- 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2029.
- How is 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a representative of the the named outcome is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) listed?
- The same question is also listed on ForecastEx, Limitless, Robinhood (Rothera), Manifold Markets, Polymarket, PredictIt.