Current community forecast
Democrats 60.5%+0.3ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
66
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 27, 25, 5:21 PM UTCJan 8, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
PolymarketWill the party that wins the 2024 US presidential election win the 2028 presidential election
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 US Presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
LimitlessWill Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES for “Democrats” if the winner of the 2028 presidential election is also the 2028 democratic party nominee for president.
- Resolves YES for “Republicans” if the winner of the 2028 presidential election is also the 2028 republican party nominee for president.
- Resolves YES for “Other” in any other scenario.
- Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
- No Election: If no presidential election takes place in 2028, the market will resolve as Other.
- Outcome Determination: In cases where the winner is disputed or unclear, the resolution will be based on the candidate who is inaugurated at the market's end date.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election??
- Manifold Markets prices Democrats at 61% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? resolve?
- Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? is scheduled to resolve on January 8, 2029.
- How is Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES for “Democrats” if the winner of the 2028 presidential election is also the 2028 democratic party nominee for president.