Will the Strait of Malacca be blockaded anytime in the next 10 years?
One-OffMiddle EastChinaGeopoliticsTrade Policy9yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJun 25, 26, 11:18 PM UTCJun 25, 36, 11:16 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between June 25, 2026, and June 25, 2036 (UTC), a sovereign state or military coalition establishes a military blockade of the Strait of Malacca.
- For the purposes of this market, a "blockade" is defined as a deliberate, military-enforced restriction or closure that halts or systematically restricts commercial maritime transit through the Strait of Malacca, lasting for a continuous period of at least 48 hours.
- The blockade must be officially recognized, declared, or described as a "blockade" or "military closure" of the Strait by at least two of the following reputable international news or maritime monitoring organizations:
- Reuters (https://www.reuters.com)
- Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com)