Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 18, 2026, 1:42 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 4.7%
Forecasters
41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 38 days ago
StaleMar 8, 25, 1:25 PMJan 21, 29, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes5%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall78% match · linked | High | 96% | — | $16.3K | $236.4K | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
 Kalshi78% match · linked | High | 16% | — | $223.9 | $816.4K | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiMost active78% match · verified | Medium | 23% | — | $29.6K | $546.5K | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless78% match · linked | Low | 95% | — | $0 | $0 | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets78% match · linked | — | 94% | — | — | — | 5 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 95% | — | — | — | 38 days ago | |
| Manifold Markets78% match · linked | — | 91% | — | — | — | yesterday | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
5mo
96%
4%
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$35.1M
24h Vol$16.3K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Kalshi
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
2y
23%
+0.5%6%
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$3.3M
24h Vol$29.6K
KALSHIAlso available on Kalshi
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
5mo
16%
6%
0%
83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$5M
24h Vol$223.9
KALSHIAlso available on Limitless
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
5mo
94.6%
5.5%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$25.1K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?
2y
91%
9%
Community forecast1,259 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
5mo
94.1%
5.9%
Community forecast13 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.3k95.4%POLYMARKETWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? — NoChasingPaper7d ago
POLYMARKETWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? — NoChasingPaper7d ago$1.1k93.3%KALSHIBefore 2027 — No17d ago
KALSHIBefore 2027 — No17d ago$1.5k95.4%POLYMARKETNoNxbYid23d ago
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Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
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POLYMARKETWill the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029?
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MANIFOLD MARKETS
What countries will Marco Rubio visit in 2026?
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KALSHIActive in these topics
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.