Will Greenland become part of the US by the end of Trump’s term?
Corporate ActionsOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95%
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41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMar 8, 25, 1:25 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Greenland is currently an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark with a population of about 56,000 people.
- The island has strategic importance due to its location in the Arctic, mineral resources, and potential shipping routes as polar ice melts.
- In 2019, former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed interest in purchasing Greenland, which was firmly rejected by both Danish and Greenlandic officials.
- Recent polling shows that approximately 85% of Greenlanders oppose becoming part of the United States, with only 6% in favor and 9% undecided.
- Greenland's government has consistently stated that the territory is "not for sale and never will be for sale."
- The United States maintains a military presence in Greenland at Thule Air Base, established during the Cold War.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? · Before January 21, 2029 17%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 97%
- Also available on Polymarket — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 98%
- Also available on Limitless — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 55%
