PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probability800–900B 41%+3.0%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$24.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 6.0%
Spread
100.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.5%
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Feb 26, 26, 12:32 AMFeb 28, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
800–900B41%
Also available on Kalshi
US trade deficit for 2026?
8mo
2%
1%
1%
+9 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$116
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S.
- International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
- Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
- The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”.
- Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Related Markets
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
$1KYes: 1%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
$896.9June 30: 9%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?
$510.5Yes: 5%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
$72Before 2027: 11%KALSHI
KALSHI
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
$7.1$0 / No Acquisition: 82%KALSHI
KALSHI
Rules
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S.
- International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
- Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
- The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”.
- Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.