US Trade Deficit in 2026?

One-OffTrade Policy US Politics Geopolitics7mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current implied probability

800–900B 48%

Leader of 8 outcomes

Market quality

40 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

Liquidity

$14.4K

Medium liquidity

Bid / Ask

3.0% / 4.7%

Spread

56.7%

Wide spread

Market data

Updated 26 minutes ago

Feb 26, 26, 12:27 AMFeb 28, 27, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

800–900B48%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S.

International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”.
Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Volume trend

$76

Jul 39d of dataJul 20

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US Trade Deficit in 2026?

One-OffTrade Policy US Politics Geopolitics7mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current implied probability

800–900B 48%

Leader of 8 outcomes

Market quality

40 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

Liquidity

$14.4K

Medium liquidity

Bid / Ask

3.0% / 4.7%

Spread

56.7%

Wide spread

Market data

Updated 26 minutes ago

Feb 26, 26, 12:27 AMFeb 28, 27, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

800–900B48%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S.

International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”.
Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Volume trend

$76

Jul 39d of dataJul 20

Related Markets

How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

$1K

$0 / No Acquisition: 82%

KALSHI

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

$298

India: 22%

POLYMARKET