KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 8, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Above $500 billion 0%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Aug 26, 26, 7:00 PM UTCFeb 7, 33, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2032.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52%
- No change-3.0pt46.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $103.9M
- 24h Vol
- $2.6M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $376.1K
- 24h Vol
- $29.3K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $607.7K
- 24h Vol
- $25.6K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-10.3pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+7.7pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.3pt3.1%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation US - Annual
- 3.4%+0.5pt42.1%
- 3.3%-2.0pt29.9%
- 3.5%-0.5pt13.1%
+9 more outcomes
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Egg prices up in August?
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US trade deficit for 2032?
- Kalshi prices Above $500 billion at 0% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US trade deficit for 2032 resolve?
- US trade deficit for 2032 is scheduled to resolve on February 7, 2033.
- How is US trade deficit for 2032 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.