KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Above $500 billion · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
Above $500 billion 97%Leader of 8 outcomes
Above $500 billion 97%Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$3
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Above $500 billionSpread
—
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Aug 26, 26, 7:00 PM UTCFeb 7, 33, 1:29 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above $500 billion
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly above $800 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data. Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion. Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2032. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.
Rules for each outcome
- Above $500 billion
- If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly above $500 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $600 billion
- If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly above $600 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $700 billion
- If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly above $700 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $800 billion
- If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly above $800 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $900 billion
- If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly above $900 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $1.0 trillion
- If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly above $1.0 trillion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $1.1 trillion
- If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly above $1.1 trillion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above $1.2 trillion
- If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly above $1.2 trillion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
