KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above $600 billion 100%Leader of 8 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2
Low liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 26, 26, 7:00 PM UTCFeb 2, 32, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2031 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2031.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US trade deficit for 2031?
- Kalshi prices Above $600 billion at 100% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does US trade deficit for 2031 resolve?
- US trade deficit for 2031 is scheduled to resolve on February 2, 2032.
- How is US trade deficit for 2031 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2031 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.