KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityBelow 45 billion 2%Leader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$82
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 4.0%
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Feb 24, 26, 3:00 PMFeb 28, 27, 1:29 PM
Trends
Selected outcome
Below 45 billion2%
Also available on Polymarket
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
8mo
+6.5%41%
-0.5%19%
+0.4%10%
+5 more outcomes
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$21.3K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETRules
If US trade deficit for 2026 is below 45 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Expiration Value is the annual seasonally adjusted U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026.
- If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 45 billion and 54.9 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 55 billion and 64.9 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 65 billion and 74.9 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 75 billion and 84.9 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Rules
If US trade deficit for 2026 is below 45 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Expiration Value is the annual seasonally adjusted U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026.
- If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 45 billion and 54.9 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 55 billion and 64.9 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 65 billion and 74.9 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 75 billion and 84.9 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.