KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 8, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Above $500 billion 0%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 26, 26, 7:00 PM UTCFeb 4, 30, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US trade deficit for 2026?
KalshiUS trade deficit for 2027
KalshiUS trade deficit for 2032
KalshiUS Trade Deficit in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join the CPTPP trade agreement before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2029 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2029.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629K
- 24h Vol
- $35.7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,000-1.0pt44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $90.3K
- 24h Vol
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US trade deficit for 2029?
- Kalshi prices Above $500 billion at 0% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US trade deficit for 2029 resolve?
- US trade deficit for 2029 is scheduled to resolve on February 4, 2030.
- How is US trade deficit for 2029 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2029 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.