Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term?

Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term resolve?

Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term is scheduled to resolve on November 5, 2028.

How is Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Source: FRED

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change-2.0pt94%
• 25 bps increase+1.0pt6%
• 25 bps decrease0%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$66.8M

24h Vol

$4.4M

POLYMARKET

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

• Hike–Pause–Hike+0.5pt74.3%
• Hike–Pause–Pause-0.5pt20.8%
• Hike–Hike–Hike-0.5pt2%

+6 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

• 2 (50 bps)+0.5pt72%
• 1 (25 bps)23%
• 3 (75 bps)-0.5pt5%

+3 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

• Yes76.2%
• No23.8%

Total Vol

$1.1M

24h Vol

$9.6K

KALSHI

CPI in October

• Above -0.1%+1.0pt98.5%
• Above 0.0%98.5%
• Above 0.1%89.5%

POLYMARKET

US economic state at the end of 2026?

• Overheating+5.0pt98%
• Soft Landing-2.5pt2%
• Slack-0.6pt0%

+1 more outcomes

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