Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 29, 2026, 3:43 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecast[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%) 90.6%Leader of 113 outcomes
Forecasters
179
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 days ago
StaleJan 28, 25, 5:01 PMFeb 2, 29, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)91%
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Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):
- https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second
- All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.
- I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true) Also See:
- @/StopPunting/which-trump-2028-term-prediction-ca