Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast![[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FStopPunting%2FllgClN6RgS.jpg&w=64&q=80)
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%) 100%Leader of 113 outcomes
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%) 100%Forecasters
191
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 28, 25, 5:01 PM UTCFeb 2, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
Manifold MarketsWill any Manifold user be imprisoned in CECOT or a similar prison after deportation from the US during Trump's 2nd term?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Pope last until the end of Trump's 2nd term?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada's stock market outperform the US's during Trump's 2nd term?
Manifold MarketsRepublicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by which date?
PolymarketCATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):
- https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second
- All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.
- I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true) Also See:
- @/StopPunting/which-trump-2028-term-prediction-ca
