Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by which date?
33.5 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
October 31 53%+4.5ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$434.3
Liquidity
$126.1
Low liquidityComments
0
7d Change
-37.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Aug 21, 26, 8:26 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market.
- The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the "Deluxe" version of the forecast, that can be found at https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model.
- Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
- If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist.