Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2026 elections?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection5d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 59%
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7
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 7, 24, 11:04 PM UTCNov 6, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
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He has the advantage of being able to consult his forecast, but sometimes he has hot takes that contradict it.
- Will those takes be vindicated?
- In 2024, Nate wrote two weeks before the election in the New York Times that his gut leaned Trump — but by Election Day his instinct switched to Harris, and he said he'd maybe put her odds at 52% instead of his forecast's 50.015%.
- It was a close situation, but I resolved the corresponding market NO.
- In 2022, Nate wrote an article called "Why I'm Telling My Friends That The Senate Is A Toss-Up" (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senate-is-a-toss-up/ ) when his forecast showed Democrats leading, but his forecast turned out more correct.
- In 2020, Nate sent this tweet after the election, which I think captures the subject of this market pretty well:
