Which Democratic senate candidates will lead in the Nate Silver polling average on election day?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection8d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:26 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNorth Carolina - Roy Cooper 99%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
22
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 6, 26, 8:16 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketDemocratic Senate Seat Count (2028)
KalshiRules
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model
- on election day 2026 after the polls are closed, I will check Nate Silvers election poll model to resolve this market.
- If the Democratic candidate in the race is leading, their answer will resolve yes.
- If they are losing, resolves no.
- If the Democratic candidate is tied, resolves no.
- Resolves according to the Democratic candidate.