Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:12 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast$13 100%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 30, 26, 10:13 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Inspired by the weird capitalization of
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Jack1/what-price-will-silver-hit-in-janua)This market tracks the price of the lowest tier of monthly individual paid subscription for Nate Silver's blog at https://www.natesilver.net/.
- This is currently $ 12.
- Prices above $12 are considered a "hit" if at any time throughout 2026 Nate offers a monthly paid subscription with a price tag HIGHER OR EQUAL to that price.
- Symmetrically, prices below $12 are considered a "hit" if a monthly subscription with a price that LOWER OR EQUAL is offered.
- The free subscription tier does not count for resolution.