PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
25-29 43.1%-9.0ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
25-29 43.1%-9.0ptMarket quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.7K
Liquidity
$77.2K
High liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 12:02 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?
PolymarketAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?
PolymarketWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/5 - 10/11)
KalshiTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/28 - 10/4)
KalshiRules
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published.
- If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
- In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.