KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 175 68%+1.0ptMarket line of 5 lines
Above 175 68%+1.0ptMarket quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$16.1K
Open interest
$16.1K
Medium open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Oct 2, 26, 4:30 PM UTCOct 13, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/28 - 10/4)
KalshiBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?
PolymarketAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
PolymarketBab el-Mandeb Strait closed by which date?
FutuurWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 175 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 150
- If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 150 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 175
- If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 175 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 200
- If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 200 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 225
- If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 225 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 250
- If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 250 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.