PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Oct 8, 2026, 12:31 AM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 8, 2026, 12:21 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
September 150%
October 31100%
September 30100%
October 31Won
September 30Won
September 15Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran target Jordan by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Egypt by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target the United Arab Emirates by which date?
PolymarketWill Israel attack Iraq in October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel attack Iraq in November 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel attack Iraq in 2029?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Iraq through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Iraq.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.