PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 15 50.9%Vig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$486.2
Low liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 96.0%
Spread
84.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 8, 26, 6:49 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran target Ukraine by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Qatar by which date?
PolymarketWill Israel attack Iraq in October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel attack Iraq in November 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel attack Iraq in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Iraq through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Iraq.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Open markets
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+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
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+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran target Iraq by which date??
- Polymarket prices September 15 at 51% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Iran target Iraq by which date? resolve?
- Will Iran target Iraq by which date? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will Iran target Iraq by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Iraq through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).