PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
0-5 68.5%+7.5ptLeader of 7 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
0-5 68.5%+7.5ptMarket quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$81.2K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 12:08 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
PolymarketHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?
PolymarketWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?
PolymarketOn October 25th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
Manifold Markets0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by which date?
PolymarketWill 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized.